Notable Weather Events Page 31

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11-04-07 Nightmare April forecast.

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The atrocious Indian summer hits April hard. On the 11th this forecast for Adeliade was issued by the BOM.

Thursday. Hot and sunny Min 19 Max 32
Friday Fine. Sunny. Min 19 Max 31
Saturday Fine. Mostly sunny. Min 17 Max 28
Sunday Fine. Mostly sunny. Min 14 Max 28
Monday Fine. High cloud. Min 15 Max 29
Tuesday Fine. High cloud. Min 17 Max 31
Wednesday Fine. Partly cloudy. Min 17 Max 31

In Adelaide, wednesday the 10th made a top of 32.9, Tuesday 33.5 and monday 31.7. If the forecast holds out some heat records are going to be set!
Up here in the ranges I recorded a top of 30 which is the latest 30 degrees recorded at this location. The hottest 11th at this location was in 2002 when it made 29 and the previous record for the latest 30+ degrees was in 2005 when on the 9th April it made 32.7. All of this because of blocking and persistent synoptic patterns as the one below.

Rainfall deficits

As discussed on the previous page rainfalls have suffered dramatically, especially in the south. If you thought it was extremely dry in your location then likely you would be right. As can be seen from the map to the right the southen Mt Lofty Ranges, Kangaroo Island, The states South East districts and small parts of Yorkes and Eyre Peninsulas are in the 0-10 percentile range of historical rains. This means that historically 90% of recordings for this period are higher. We are scraping the bottom of the rainfall barrel! The rainfall forecast for the next 3 months is mixed as can be seen in the map below. Its depressing to note that the Fleurieu Peninsula and South Eastern Mt Lofty Ranges and flats are again seen in declining rainfall probabilities.

Above - Rainfall map showing the deficiencies over the previous 6 months Left - forecast rainfall for the 3 months april - june Source Long Paddock

*UPDATED Disturbing Forecast*

In a further blow to the Fleurieu even the Bureau of Meteorology's computer models see something of a short term rain shadow/deficit over the district. This forecast is based on computer modelling and as such is subject to inaccuracies, but its very interesting to note that 2 separate organisations see a problem down south. In the map to the right issued by the BOM on the 14th april 07 showing the forecast potential for rainfall for the period 19-4 to the 22-4 a small area of zero falls is notable in its existence over the Fleurieu. The area in question is indicated by the black arrow with an enlarged crop onside the red box. This corresponds rather closely with the medium term rainfall forecast issued by the Queensland Department of Primary Industries. (see map above). INTERESTING! Yes the resolution of the data displayed here is low and yes they are not real data recordings but computer modelling. However some of the more dramatic declines in the district (such as the drying of the dam on my property) correspond reasonably closely with these maps. Disturbing - yes. But time will be the teller and it will be interesting to see what updates follow up from this point!!

Above - BOM issued rainfall forcast map. Click here to visit the source page.

Anzac Day 2007 - Season Break

The models looked great! Could they hold up? Would it finally rain?. HELL YES!!! Read the report HERE

1st May 2007 Wind Buffets Hills

Not a ridiculously extreme event, but noteworthy as an approaching front gives 12 hours of gale force winds, that culminate with an 80.8km/h gust around 6.00pm. The windiest location was Sellicks Hill where gusts above 90km/h were recorded. Down on the city plains temps were quite warm in the mid to high twenties under the influence of the gusty NNW stream. No rain accompanied this front.

13th - 17th May 2007 Low pressure and Storms.

A low stalls in the bight and brings some great rains, thunderstorms and lightning. Read the report HERE!

18th May 2007 - amazing satellite image

Who says there are not nice geometric patterns in nature.. This real time, true colour image from the modis satellite database is from the 18th may 2007. It is of central SA with Adelaide and hills smack bang in the middle of the "circle" which is quite obvious.

Small inset - zoomed out view highlights the "circle" at this magnification.
Left view - its almost a perfect circle (100% pixel view)
right view - 100% pixel view with no overlays. If you look closely the "circle" appears to continue through the deck of cloud in the upper part of the image as a thickening of the cloud.
Amazing image I reckon

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