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The big dry and the big oven

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The shocking dry from 2008 which delivered the second driest spring on record continues. As of the 25th Jan with just 1.9mm for the month my area is in the 6th driest January on record.
But in the bigger picture when combined with the spring failure its grim indeed.
My rainfall total from September to the 25th Jan is just 134mm. My average for this period is 289mm. Only 1982/83 was drier for the same period with an abysmal 126mm.
Needless to say on the back of a number of woeful years my local environment is suffering stress which is particularly evident in the bigger old trees which have dropped more wood than I have ever seen.
The only saving grace has been the relatively cooler temps. This unfortunately is about to end as the forecast from hell manifested on the 25th Jan.

Monday Dry. Sunny. Min 17 Max 35
Tuesday Dry. Very hot. Min 23 Max 41
Wednesday Dry. Very hot. Min 25 Max 41
Thursday Dry. Very hot. Min 27 Max 41
Friday Dry. Very hot. Min 23 Max 39
Saturday Dry. Mostly sunny. Min 23 Max 35
Sunday Dry. Mostly sunny. Min 23 Max 37

Lets hope this is not march 2008 all over again!

While I doubt such a monumental event such as the 08 heatwave will repeat the potential is certainly there unfortunately as the highs park themselves in yet another blocking pattern of slow to nil movement and flow through of systems.

The days as they happen, written on the days they happen in "blog" form

Australia Day - 26th Jan
Adelaide topped out at 36.6 with a min of 16.9.
My Location 31.4, min 10.7

The 27th. A day of records.
Adelaide reached 43.2 after a low of 21.2. This was the warmest Jan day for the city for 6 years.
My location recorded a max of38.7 after a low of 15.9. This is my highest temp in 5 years!
Its also my 3rd highest recording. The record is 40.1 in 2003 on the 25th Jan. Adelaide made 44.1 that day and inland 47 was recorded.
Next highest was 39.1 in 2004 on the 14th feb. This period too was a record breaker. 15 consecutive days over 30 including 8 consecutive days over 35 and a few other rural centres set record feb highs with this event.
After this breaking of the progged temps the forecast has been updated to include Friday in the plus 40's with 41 expected. This will be 4 consecutive days at or above 41 degrees in the city if it follows.

Wednesday the 28th January
WOW! Hell did indeed descend to Southern Australia today.
Adelaide sweltered under its hottest day in 70 years. Kent town recorded an incredible 45.7 degrees! The cities all time record is 46.1c set on January 12, 1939.
It topped 40 today by 10am!! Railway lines were closed due to buckling the heat was so intense. Adelaide may well set their night time record as well with 32 forecast as the minimum. Adelaide's minimum record is 33.5 recorded in 1982, so the chance is really very much there. As of 8pm wednesday the city was still 41.8 degrees!

Up my way I broke all my previous temp records! Yetserday may have been the hottest day for 5 years, but today was my hottest ever. I maxed out at 40.8 degrees. My previous record was 40.1 on the 25th jan 2003.
And the records continued to be set all across southern Australia. The stand out is Murray Bridge which topped the state with an incredible 48 degrees, their hottest day on record. According to BOM stats king Blair Trewin it is possible that this may well be the highest temp on earth ever recorded this far south! Stay tuned for more on this.

Other spots to suffer under greater than 45 were Keith, Kyancutta, Cleve, Naracoorte, Port Augusta, Snowtown, Wudinna and Ceduna. The normally cool southern coast made 46, Amazing!
Of great interest is the development of some severe thunderstorms over the mid north (as always). These crisp convective towers saw reports of hail, torrential rain and an amazing amount of lightning activity. JUst going by radar echoes alone falls above 30mm in some spots are a certainty. As always the southern spots remain storm and convective cloud free. Summer doesn't usually see rain down south, but its been so long since a significant fall I have forgotten the feel of mud. The paddocks are incredibly dry.

Anyway I have digressed ;-)

As I predicted earlier the forecast just gets worse with currently no real end in sight. Each forecast run sees the temperature extremes extend further and further.
Incredibly Adelaide is expected to rise above 40 till sunday.
March 2008 was touted as a once in three thousand year event. This one may well be worse with far more intense temperatures. What are the chances that we will suffer such an incredible climatic aberration twice in less than 12 months? It doesn't bear thought.

Our landscape is being baked in the hot oven.

Thursday the 29th January.
I'll try to keep these short as its most likely that these updates will be pretty darn regular as this event (as I forecast) looks to carry on for at least another 7 days. I hate to be the bearer of bad news peoples but it actually looks like it may heat to plus 40 again towards the end of next week!
Oh man :-(

Anyways today. Starting with the overnight temps. The city did indeed as I suspected set an all time record for heat. It dropped to a shocking 33.9 which is the highest ever overnight temp in over 120 years of data. Most of their night however was around the 36 degree mark.
We dropped to 27 before midnight before the temp rose to be over 31 degrees before daybreak. This is unheard of in my part of the world. Worryingly the winds were reaching gale force. My max gust for the day was 63.1km/h. In the high temps real garden wilting stuff. Luckily we averted any fires in the hills, would have been an unmitigated disaster with the temps and winds.
An amazing temp spike at Edinburgh airport overnight saw it jump a remarkably rapid 5 degrees to be almost 40 degrees at 3am!!!
Adelaide rose to a daytime maximum of 43.2 degrees. The temps were mitigated ever so slightly by that dangerous nasty wind. A real double edged sword. 3 days above 40 now and a very real chance of setting an all time heat record by next week.
My top today was 38.7. Not another 40 but still in the extreme end of my temp range. It is for me a record 3 consecutive days above 38.5 degrees!

Other happenings from today is still more not so good news. Hardly surprisingly our electricity supply could not cope as load sharing was introduced in the afternoon with selected suburbs "switched off" for 30 minute intervals. Add to this up to 28 power outages across the state. The government actually grew some compassion after telling us to all turn off our air conditioners and opened air conditioned public buildings up as "refuges" for the public. I would roll my eyes, but nothing really surprises.
Amazingly after the thousands of lightning strikes across the north and western parts of the state no major fires were reported.

Currently as I write (9:30pm) the trough line has moved nicely inland a bit bringing welcome cool sea breezes to a lucky few. Hindmarsh island is back to 20 degrees, Parawa 25, Strathalbyn 27 to name but a few. Adelaide is still 35 degrees. The SSE has arrived at my place and we are starting to cool with it 28 degrees.

Friday the 30th January.
My records continue to evaporate like the dwindling moisture in my soil. Today reached 39 again at my spot, the fourth day in a row above the 38.7 mark. This has smashed my previous consecutive high temp records. The evening though was pleasantly cool dropping to 24 degrees with a gentle cool southerly breeze.
As i type this at 9.30pm the temp has dropped like a stone to be the coolest in 3 days at 22 degrees. And still dropping I might add.

The city (Adelaide) today rose to 43.1. Now the 4th consecutive day above 40 degrees. Their overnight minima was far more "comfortable" at 29.4 degrees.

Interstate Melbourne set a new all time record rising above 40 degrees for the 3rd consecutive day setting the most severe heatwave on record! This has stressed their power supplies beyond coping with an incredible 500,000 people without power! Thats half a million people!!! Clearly we do not have the infrastructure to cope with these extremes.

For those who had considered a move to Tassie (Count me in this number!!), you may want to rethink. They too are suffering from the extreme heat. For the second consecutive day their records have been broken. The town of Ross in the midlands region made 41.6 degrees! This beats the record set just the day before of 41.5 on Flinders Island. Other hot towns included St Helens at 41 and Fingal 41.3.

Mount Gambier equalled their highest recorded temperature of 43.6 for the second day in a row.

Now some ever so slightly better news. It seems that there is some very small chance of a moderating of temps to the high thirties instead of low 40's for next week. Its a bit of straw grasping but its the first drop in forecasts I have seen since this all began. The models do hint a little on the possibility, cool it won't be, a difficult week it will be, but if the temps can stay below 40 it will help an already pushed to the limit system immeasurably.

Saturday the 31st January.
Adelaide yet again rose above 40 degrees making 41.1 after an overnight low of 27.5. 5th consecutive day now.

Down my location in the southern ranges it was marginally cooler making "just" 35.4. This followed a much cooler night of 19.7 under the influence of SE sea breezes. The cooler start held off the heat till after midday. By late afternoon the SE winds arrived yet again and the temp plummeted returning the cool beautiful evening conditions.

Down on the south coast conditions were in another world with mid twenties temps under the southerly influence.
Generally not too much to report apart from the continuing heat away from the coasts.

Other news. Over 30 heat related deaths have occurred in SA in 2 days. Mostly the sick and elderly. This has prompet something I cannot recall seeing on a South Australian Forecast before.
"A Heat Health Warning has been issued by the State Emergency Services and SA Health [www.ses.sa.gov.au]"
As the last day of January passed records showed it was the driest January for 17 years with just 1mm recorded..

A possible end to the run of high temps is forecast to occur by the coming saturday, 7th Feb. The forecast as it stands from 8:20 pm on Saturday 31 January 2009 still leaves a difficult week ahead.

Sunday Dry Mostly Sunny Min 26 Max 40
Monday Dry. Mostly sunny. Min 25 Max 39
Tuesday Dry. Mostly sunny. Min 22 Max 38
Wednesday Dry. Mostly sunny. Min 22 Max 38
Thursday Dry. Mostly sunny. Min 21 Max 37
Friday Dry. Mostly sunny. Min 19 Max 35
Saturday Milder change. Min 22 Max 30

If this follows it will have resulted in 6 consecutive days above 40, 4 of these above 43. It will also have given 12 consecutive days above 35, very very close to the march 2008 record setter. What will happen? Time will tell. Stay tuned.

Sunday the 1st of February
Another day above 40 for Adelaide, the sixth. But only just! The max of 40.6 struggled all day under sea breeze influences and made it in the end at almost 5:30pm. Day 6 above 40 now and equalling the all time heatwave record set in 1908. In terms of heat though this one is even hotter! 1908 hottest day was "just" 43.4. In a monthly context January's average maximum temperature was 32C, 2.9 degreesabove the monthly average of 29.1. This makes 2008 the seventh hottest January on record.

After a cool start with overnight temp dropping to 16.5 degrees it was very slow to warm up in my area. But it did for a short period and made 34.2 degrees. Convective activity did show promise early in the day as dewpoints in my area rose above 20 degrees, but as always it fizzled to nothing and made a beeline to the mid north where some very impressive and intense storms dumped over the Robertstown to Nuriootpa area. One light shower forming on the outflow from from the above monsters came as far south as Hahndorf to Nairne. The usual boundary. Yet again blustery cool to cold south easterlies arrived early evening to bring a huge temp plummet and beautiful cool conditions to the south coastal areas.

This is a first. The SA government is a fit of deep thought sent a warning text message out to thousands of South Australians warning of the heat and to look out for our neighbours and elderly. Well duh! Funny were hills residents excluded, I certainly received nothing. I wonder if this is to go with the message to turn off our air conditioers at the start of this heatwave?
AHA!! So THATS what we pay the thinkers in residence for! : roll eyes :

Finally some relief on the forecast with the following Sunday have a forecast of 25 degrees. But not before another week of scorchers close to the 40 degree mark to be endured.

Monday the 2nd Feb.
Well, here ends the run of 40's. 1908 Record not broken, but equalled. But it came mightly mighty close. Adelaide made 38.8 just 1.2 degrees from setting history.
At my spot it was a much cooler day making 30 for about 2 minutes in the late afternoon as the southerlies stalled for just a few minutes pooling the suns heat. Most of the day hovered between 27 and 28. The nights have been cooling off significantly in the southern hills and we dropped to 15.2 as our minimum.

In other news Adelaides rail network was again heat affected. Grape yields and quality are severly affected due to the heat. Some growers in the Barossa and McLaren regions started harvest over the recent weekend up to 4 weeks early!
Storms with localised torrential falls yet again developed in the mid north while the south remains terribly terribly dry.
Meanwhile Nth Queensland is receiving massive rain dumps.

Tuesday the 3rd Feb.
A very much cooler start for my spot. The day dawned to thick pea soup fog with water dripping from the trees. The overnight low of 14.9 is my lowest temp for 8 days. It took a while but the day eventually warmed to a muggy 32.4. Surprisingly hot considering the start.

Adelaide also was much cooler overnight at 21.5. But temps climbed quickly to a warm but not stinking hot 36.3. Relief? Depends on your point of view. The forecast has added a 40 degree day for friday, so any relief is short lived. High 30's fill in the days in between.

In other news the Brits are having their biggest snowfall in 18 years! Send some of it here please!!
It may well cool down. The first few days of next week are forecast to be in the mid 20's. And rain? Well what the hells rain? I should get busy with the rain stats I suppose, but on the other hand do we really want to know for sure what our landscape (especially the south) is telling is? He he.... will look at this soon.

Wednesday the 4th.
The weather gods delivered a little bit of respite. Under the influence of stronger sea breezes Adelaide only made 33 degrees. It was barely cooler down my way interestingly making 31.8 after a cool overnight low of 13.2.

Thursday the 5th.
The temp returned for the city making a top of 35.6. Strangely my spot was much much cooler topping out at just 27.7, but hovering in the low twenties for most of the day. New forecasts are issued and the coming friday and staurday look like shockers, both in the 40's.

Friday the 6th.
The heat is BACK! Adelaide roasts in a top of 43.9. An uncomfortable nasty day. My spot also heats up making 38.8. Heat warnings abound on the forecasts. The night does not cool down and as the sun sets Adelaide is still close to 40 degrees and incredibly my spot is 35. I must check the stats on this but it must be close to if not a new record for me. An unexpected short burst of southerlies dropped the overnights to the low twenties for a very short time. Amazingly (used this term a lot recently) Mt Lofty did not drop out of the thirties. This is incredible! The highest point in the region significantly hotter than the lowlands. It appears that Mt Lofty was just high enough to rise above the cool temp inversion leaving it locked in the hot air aloft. VERY unusual.

Then there was Saturday the 7th Feb 2008
One of the worse days I can remember for a very very long time. Early morning I went outside to have a look.I had not really warmed up yet coming from a coolish house. I walked out into the 50km/h winds and was flabbergasted! The depth and power of the heat in the wind was incredible. I have not experienced it here ever I don't think. Not like this anyway. Last time I felt such a hot wind was at Copeville, one hot hot place in the mallee, not at 420 ASL metres in the Southern Ranges!!
This deserves a mention. Strathalbyn temps rose 17.4 deg in 60 minutes, and 9.5 degrees in 7 minutes when the wind picked up. OMG!!
I mentioned the wind, it was horrendous and was the worse fire day in years. A fire would be unstoppable in such conditions and the press hopped onto their bandwagons advertising the fact in the double edged sword such information is. I ended up with a maximum gust of 74.1km/h. In 36 degree temps anything green out is fan force cooked. Adelaide maxed out at 41.5 degrees and my spot 36.9. Around midday the cooler wind change tried to arrive inland. I say tried because it took it till dusk to truly establish and temps seesawed up and down with the occasional coolish breeze. As an example the hindmarsh island obs are amazing! It was 30.5 at 9am climbing to a scorching 40.4 by 9:30am. Then back down to a low 25.7 at 10:38!! Strewth!!

As I write the cool breeze has estabished, low cloud is above and its a perfect 16.5 degrees outside. South Australia at least managed to avoid any real serious fire incidents. Not so Victoria.

In other news worth a mention.
Melbourne made history by recording its highest ever temperature since records began in 1859. The max was an incredible 46 degrees!!
Whyalla made a mindblowing 48 degree top! Their record! As did Pt Augusta.
Queensland is still drowning. Some northern areas have had over 1400mm since the year began. Innisfail has had 560mm in 7 days!! Send it south - please..

Victorias bushfires boggle the mind in the scope of their destruction under the worse fire conditions imaginable. There is enough swamping the press at the moment so I won't elaborate here, suffice it to say that South Australia is very very lucky to have survibed the disaster that Victoria awakes to on the 8th feb.

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